3rd Quarter GDP to be the "Eye of the Storm"

I am making a call right now, but before i do lets lay down the foundation. We have seen some short-term positive effects of the stimulus packages, the stock market has recently broke the 10,000 barrier, and the VIX has come down to near long-term avgerage levels.

The bad news is this, the Fed has kept interest rates low, which makes safe investments less attractive, the unemployment rate is pushing toward double digits, the dollar is at all time lows, and there is not a good piece of news on the horizen after GDP.

Once this week is over, reality is sure to set, and it's not pretty. The market has been on a high because the safe investments (the Dollar, Bonds, etc.) are not providing a return right now due to near zero interest rates. When we get past this week, as soon as reality sets, people are going to start seeking these safe investments again even though they are not attractive. More negative news, along with the slight shift in demand for risk is going to start making investors shift their money from assets in the stock market to safer investments like the dollar and bonds. This shift to safety is going to bring the stock market crumbling. If you start seeing the dollar rising and interest rates dropping, get out!

I see a fairly large scaleback coming in the stock market in the next several months. Like I said, after GDP, it starts to go downhill and the storm sets again.

ING has passed

I have been a big proponent for quite some time of ING. In fact I have watched it over the last year gain nearly 375%. I personally made over 25% on a lot of money. I played options on the stock at the same time, so i was also able to protect myself from any downside, while also collecting a premium (1-2%). I did miss nearly 40% by getting out too early, but in retrospect, I am glad I did get out.

The ING that you read about today is a new ING, with different prospects, different businesses and most importantly, different management. I once called this company my pride and joy, but now it is time to move on, I can no longer recommend this business because fundamentally it is different, and it is a company I don't know anymore.

What this split shows me is that nothing is safe from the powers of regulatory bodies. So to those of us owning companies who have recieved a hand from the government recently, I say stay sharp and alert. ING took a 20% hit yesterday, and the business has changed dramatically, and that is something that could happen to any of these companies.

There is still a lot of uncertainty in the market, so protect yourselves - use options or whatever means of protection you are comfortable with, but there is still a need to protect against the unknown.

Conoco Phillips (COP) Made me over 210%

If you were wondering what stock I was referring to in the message to my facebook group, it was COP. I have owned this company's stock for almost a year, when just recently I heard some promising "Rumors" about a large increase in the stock price coming in the near future. Now, I am the biggest proponent of doing my own research (I did do plenty of my own before i purchased the shares) because following the lead of others is not something that typically turns out rewarding. But several of my mentors have encouraged "Piggybacking" of other professionals - so I took a shot.

I have been keeping a close eye on the company for the last few months after discovering some potentially impactfull debt coming due in the near future, so I was starting to weigh my options about what I may do with my position (hold or sell). After I read of an article that detailed the purchase of a substantial amount of options contracts by one billionaire, I calculated the potential returns from my current position and theirs in the coming months. With the potential of a large price movement at hand, I decided to simply turn in my shares for options, leaving me with the same dollar amount invested in COP. I purchased Jan $50 Call options for $1.46 a share (it really sounds more complicated than it is - see my section on options).

I have seen this position grow over a short period of time, and have realized over 200% return on my investment - if you had invested $1,000, you would have a total of$3,000 when you cashed out!!!

I have created a comments section where I would like to start communicating these types of finds with all of you, and as well as hear your ideas when you find them. This is the time to take educated risks and make some money - I would like to hear what ideas you may have as I share mine.